Black Friday Disappoints

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change	Percent
S&P Futures	1804.7	0.6	0.03%
Eurostoxx Index	3080.2	-6.4	-0.21%
Oil (WTI)	93.09	0.4	0.40%
LIBOR	0.239	0.000	-0.10%
US Dollar Index (DXY)	80.9	0.220	0.27%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	2.78%	0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	105.3	0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	104.1	-0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index	200.7	-0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	4.38

Markets are flattish as traders return from a long weekend. Bonds and MBS are down. At 10:00 we will get the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending. 

There is a lot of data this week, starting with the ISM report today, GDP on Thursday, and the all-important jobs report on Friday. Given the October surprise and the fact that the bar is set pretty low for Friday's report (180k jobs / 7.2% unemployment) bonds could be vulnerable as any upside surprise will re-ignite December taper talk.

Black Friday was disappointing according to the National Retail Federation, as retailers were highly promotional early into the holiday shopping season. We have seen Wal Mart and Target already cut profit forecasts for the year. On Thursday, we will get the comp store data dump from all the retailers as they report November same store sales. We might see some profit warnings as well. It is hard to see how the Fed sees growth accelerating into 2014 with a consumer that is still cautious. 

The White House is saying that the healthcare.gov website is operating fine, therefore it made its self-imposed Dec 1 deadline. The Administration is hoping that this will mollify Democrats in red districts with cold feet about the whole thing. We'll see if it actually "works for the vast majority of users" as HHS claims it does.

Brent Nyitray, CFA

Director of Capital Markets

iDirect Home Loans

National Asset Direct

Dellacamera Capital Management

1010 Washington Blvd, 6th Floor

Stamford, CT 06901

203-817-3614 (w)

917-841-4938 (c)