Vital Statistics:
|
Last
|
Change
|
Percent
|
|
|
S&P Futures
|
1670.9
|
-15.5
|
-0.92%
|
|
Eurostoxx Index
|
2882.4
|
-36.9
|
-1.26%
|
|
Oil (WTI)
|
101.7
|
-1.2
|
-1.15%
|
|
LIBOR
|
0.249
|
0.001
|
0.20%
|
|
US Dollar Index (DXY)
|
80.14
|
-0.382
|
-0.47%
|
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield
|
2.61%
|
-0.02%
|
|
|
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA
|
105.7
|
0.1
|
|
|
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA
|
104.9
|
0.1
|
|
|
RPX Composite Real Estate Index
|
200.7
|
-0.2
|
|
|
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
|
4.33
|
Markets are lower
as participants contemplate a government
shutdown. The Street has viewed this issue as a kabuki dance, but we are
now getting to the short strokes. Bonds and MBS are rallying.
Aside from the
government shutdown issues, this week also contains the all-important jobs
report. The Street is at an increase of 182k and an unemployment rate of 7.3%.
St Louis Fed Head James Bullard raised the possibility of tapering at the
October meeting. I think if we have any sort of shutdown, tapering will be off
the table until the Dec meeting at the earliest. Of course if there is a
shutdown, we won't be getting any economic data this week.
One potential
issue coming down the pike is the fee limit on mortgages starting Jan 1. The
cap makes sub $100k loans uneconomic for originators. I wonder how the CFPB
will handle the sudden unavailability of loans below 100k. Not sure if they
thought this through or they just plan on hitting everyone with fair lending /
CRA lawsuits.
Housing equity rose
30% or more than $2 trillion
over the past year, according to NAR.
Another interesting
data point on the
manufacturing renaissance in the US - low value added industries like textiles
are onshoring. The problem is finding people.
Brent Nyitray, CFA
Dellacamera Capital Management
iDirect Home Loans
1010 Washington St, 6th floor
Stamford CT 06901
T: 203-817-3614
C: 917-841-4938
AIM bnyitray
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