Vital Statistics:
|
Last
|
Change
|
Percent
|
|
|
S&P Futures
|
1763.2
|
-4.4
|
-0.25%
|
|
Eurostoxx Index
|
3039.5
|
-13.3
|
-0.44%
|
|
Oil (WTI)
|
95.06
|
-0.1
|
-0.08%
|
|
LIBOR
|
0.239
|
0.000
|
0.00%
|
|
US Dollar Index (DXY)
|
81.12
|
0.028
|
0.03%
|
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield
|
2.77%
|
0.02%
|
|
|
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA
|
105.2
|
-0.8
|
|
|
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA
|
103.9
|
-0.1
|
|
|
RPX Composite Real Estate Index
|
200.7
|
-0.2
|
|
|
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
|
4.39
|
Happy 11/12/13
Markets are lower
as bond traders come back from a long weekend. Bonds and MBS continue their
post jobs report sell-off.
The Chicago
Fed National Activity Index ticked
up a bit in September, while the 4 month moving average remained
negative.
The NFIB Small
Business Optimism Report fell
from 93.9 to 91.6. He points out that small business is still struggling.
That is an important point to remember - the S&P 500 is not a
representative sample of U.S. business. Most of the big S&P names have
exposure to fast-growing overseas markets and benefit from all the liquidity being
pumped into the system by the world's central banks. Small business is more
affected by weak demand domestically. The government shutdown weighed on
sentiment as well.
With not a lot of
economic data, Fed-speak becomes more important. Dallas Fed President Richard
Fisher told CNBC that the markets should bear in mind that QE cannot last
forever. The balance sheet is $4 trillion and there are limits to what the
Federal Reserve can do. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota will talk about
monetary strategy at 1:00 pm EST and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will
discuss the economy at 1:50 EST.
Homebuilder D.R.
Horton reported earnings in line with estimates. Average selling prices climbed
15% as a combination of tight supply and low inventory allows the builders to
hike prices at will. The stock is up in the pre-market.
NAR's Chief
Economist Lawrence Yun is making
predictions about 2014.
Exiting Home Sales will be flat at about 5.1 million units, prices will rise by
6% and the the 30 year fixed rate mortgage will end the year at 5.4%. New Home
construction will increase to meet demand (at some point the builders will stop
seeing price increases and will have to pump up volume to achieve growth).
Lending standards will continue to ease and an improving job market will
increase activity. If cash sales drop as a percentage of total sales, the
purchase business should improve, but probably not enough to offset the end of
the refi boom.
Brent Nyitray, CFA
Director of Capital Markets
iDirect Home Loans
National Asset Direct
Dellacamera Capital Management
1010 Washington Blvd, 6th Floor
Stamford, CT 06901
203-817-3614 (w)
917-841-4938 (c)
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