Vital Statistics:
|
Last
|
Change
|
Percent
|
|
|
S&P Futures
|
1745.3
|
3.5
|
0.20%
|
|
Eurostoxx Index
|
3029.4
|
12.2
|
0.40%
|
|
Oil (WTI)
|
96.67
|
-0.2
|
-0.20%
|
|
LIBOR
|
0.238
|
0.000
|
-0.10%
|
|
US Dollar Index (DXY)
|
79.26
|
-0.005
|
-0.01%
|
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield
|
2.49%
|
-0.01%
|
|
|
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA
|
103.7
|
-0.1
|
|
|
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA
|
102.7
|
-0.1
|
|
|
RPX Composite Real Estate Index
|
200.7
|
-0.2
|
|
|
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
|
4.27
|
Markes are higher
this morning after a slew of generally positive earnings reports, most notably
PulteGroup, Ford, and Coca Cola. Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than
expected. California is still working through its claims backlog, so that
number is probably understated. Bonds and MBS are up small.
Homebuilder
PulteGroup announced third quarter earnings that topped analyst estimates. New
orders were down 17%. On the conference call, they noted that "housing
market conditions have changed", as demand is slowing on higher prices and
mortgage rates. Their Washington DC markets, particularly the higher priced
markets, were affected by uncertainty over the government shutdown. California
is also "softer." However, they view this as short-lived within a sustained,
multiyear housing recovery. Tellingly though, they bought back stock and debt
instead of re-investing idle cash back in the business.
Bank of America
was found
guilty for Countrywide's sins and the government wants $850 billion,
stemming from a plan to pay LO's bonuses on volume. The person who led the plan
(dubbed the hustle) may be personally liable for fraud. Damages have yet to be
determined. I wonder how much the government "encouraged" BOA to buy
Countrywide. In every financial crisis, the first thing any government does is
it to force shotgun weddings between the strong and the weak.
Lender Processing
Services "First
Look" Mortgage Report has delinquencies up slightly (4.2%) month over
month, but still down 12.6% year over year.
Cash sales accounted
for 49% of all residential
sales in September, up from a revised 40% in August according to RealtyTrac.
Last year, cash sales were 30% of all residential sales. Short sales accounted
for 15% of all sales. REO sales were 10%. RealtyTrac estimates the median price
was 174,000, which is vastly different than NAR's estimate of the median home
price which is 199,000.
Brent Nyitray, CFA
Dellacamera Capital Management
iDirect Home Loans
1010 Washington St, 6th floor
Stamford CT 06901
T: 203-817-3614
C: 917-841-4938
AIM bnyitray
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