Vital Statistics:
|
Last
|
Change
|
Percent
|
|
|
S&P Futures
|
1732.7
|
4.9
|
0.28%
|
|
Eurostoxx Index
|
3022.5
|
12.1
|
0.40%
|
|
Oil (WTI)
|
101.4
|
0.7
|
0.71%
|
|
LIBOR
|
0.241
|
-0.002
|
-0.62%
|
|
US Dollar Index (DXY)
|
79.62
|
-0.027
|
-0.03%
|
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield
|
2.57%
|
-0.02%
|
|
|
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA
|
105.9
|
0.2
|
|
|
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA
|
105.2
|
0.2
|
|
|
RPX Composite Real Estate Index
|
200.7
|
-0.2
|
|
|
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
|
4.24
|
Markets are
higher this morning on a couple of good earnings reports out of Morgan Stanley
and GE. The 10-year continues its post-crisis rally.
The government
has been back at the job, but still no economic data this morning. Apparently
the September jobs report will be released Tuesday. And some of the data we
will get will be less
than reliable.
As bonds move
lower, so do mortgage rates. Since early September, the average 30 year fixed
rate mortgage has fallen to 4.24%, which is the lowest level since June.
Mortgage Bankers may in fact get one last bite at the refi apple before rates
start heading higher for good.
The increase in
rates has brought some anecdotal evidence that the red-hot California market is
beginning to cool a bit. The flippers are focusing on the higher end homes, as
the lower price points have been picked over. According to the California
Association of Realtors, home sales were down 5% in September, and the median
price fell.
The National
Association of Homebuilders sentiment
index fell in October as
builders worried about the cost and availability of labor as well as the events
in Washington. We have been hearing about skilled labor quite a bit - in spite
of high unemployment, employers are finding it hard to fill certain positions.
The biggest one is skilled labor. The housing bust sent many skilled laborers
to the energy patch, which means there are less electricians, plumbers, etc.
The NAHB is forecasting housing starts to be around 900,000 units for the month
of September. This is still well below our historical average of 1.5 million.
As the echo boomers find jobs, we should be in store for a massive, massive
building boom given that we have tremendous pent-up household formation and we
have underbuilt for the past decade.
The beatdown goes
on... Wells is laying
off 925 in mortgage ops.
Suntrust is laying off 800.
Brent Nyitray, CFA
Dellacamera Capital Management
IDirect Home Loans
1010 Washington St, 6th floor
Stamford CT 06901
T: 203-817-3614
C: 917-841-4938
AIM bnyitray
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